A brief analysis of PP market influencing factors in East China in the late period

In August, PP market price stability in East China slightly higher, the transaction continued flat.

8月份，华东地区PP市场价格稳中小幅探高，成交延续平淡。

Sinopec and CPC set off a wave of price increases in the region, which plays a certain driving role in the market. In addition, the overall resources in the market are not abundant, most traders maintain a good attitude, and mainly follow a small price increase in shipment, but subject to the weak terminal demand, and the downstream factories are afraid of high receiving limited, the overall trading has always been in a poor state.

中石化、中油大区掀起涨价浪潮，对行情起到一定的带动作用，加上场内总体资源并不充裕，大多贸易商心态保持良好，跟随小幅提价出货为主，不过受制于疲弱的终端需求，且下游工厂畏高接货有限，整体交投始终处于不佳的状态。

Second, the future market forecast

二、后市预测

Upstream: Crude oil, OPEC will meet in Algiers, Algeria, on September 26-28, and it is widely rumored that members will reach an agreement to freeze production at this meeting, this time joined by Russia, in order to stop oil prices from falling further.

上游市场：国际原油，OPEC将于9月26-28日在阿尔及利亚首都阿尔及尔举行会议，多方传言是：在这次会议上成员国将达成冻产协议，这次俄罗斯也将加入冻产，以阻止油价进一步下滑。

The opposition, however, remains nervous, as oil production in the big producers has quietly soared to record highs.

然而反方仍提心吊胆，原因是各大产油国的产油量却默默飙升新高。

As for propylene monomer, some units in China have been shut down, and the supply of monomer in the market has decreased, which may provide some short-term price support.

丙烯单体，中国国内部分装置关闭，市场单体供应量减少，或为短期价格提供一定支持。

Market supply: 2016 China Hangzhou G20 Summit is coming, in order to ensure the air quality during the meeting, Zhejiang issued the "West Lake Blue" action environmental protection plan, the pollution enterprises within the jurisdiction are divided by region and grade, respectively take production suspension, production restriction and other measures, then there will be a number of PP petrochemical devices involved.

市场供应：2016中国杭州G20峰会在即，为保证会议期间的空气质量，浙江出台了打造“西湖蓝”行动环境保障计划，将辖区内污染企业按地域、等级划分，分别采取停产、限产等措施，届时将有多套PP石化装置涉及其中。

According to the cutting-edge news, Shaoxing Sanyuan and Ningbo Formosa Plastics plan to stop for maintenance in late August and mid-September, Shanghai Petrochemical's first and second line may be driving in rotation, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical is initially determined to reduce the load production, Yangzi Petrochemical, Ningbo Fude, Donghua Yangzijiang Petrochemical and other pending, this policy may provide support for short-term market supply.

据前沿消息，绍兴三圆、宁波台塑计划8月底9月中旬停车检修，上海石化一线、二线可能是轮番开车，镇海炼化初步定为降负荷生产，扬子石化、宁波富德、东华扬子江石化等待定中，此政策或为市场短期供应利好提供支撑。

Petrochemical: petrochemical enterprise inventory pressure is not big, near the end of the month to reduce the continuous delivery, the field supply tightening situation or continued, price intention unchanged or will form a strong support for spot.

石化方面：石化企业库存压力不大，临近月底放货连续减少，场内供应趋紧现状或持续，挺价意向不改或将对现货形成较强支撑。

Downstream industry: plastic industry as a big sensitive area of environmental protection, at this special moment is naturally concerned.

下游行业：塑料行业作为环保的一大敏感区域，在此特殊时刻自然是备受关注。

It is reported that most of the enterprises shut down during the G20 control period are concentrated in high-pollution products enterprises. Although there are many enterprises involved in plastic products enterprises, including woven bags, BOPP, daily necessities, wire and cable and some blow molding enterprises, but most of them do not produce much pollution in the production process, so they are ordered to reduce negative production.

据悉，G20管控期间停工的企业多数集中在高污染制品企业，而塑料制品企业虽然牵涉企业众多，包括编织袋、BOPP、日用品、电线电缆及部分吹塑企业，但由于多数在生产过程中，并未产生多少污染，因此基本以责令降负生产为主。

One consumer-goods company said it had received the notice, but that it was operating at 70-80 percent of capacity because of the recent downturn in the plastics industry, so a reduction to 50-60 percent would not have much impact.

有一日用品制品企业表示，他们确实有收到相关通知，但由于近来塑料行业并不景气，他们原来的开工率也只有70-80%，因此降负到50-60%并不会产生过多影响。

Overall, downstream factories already weak in receiving goods, and now will face the G20 summit control, weak demand will continue to hinder the development of the market.

综合来看，下游工厂接货力度原本就弱，目前又将面临G20峰会的管控，需求疲软的顽疾将继续阻碍行情的发展。

However, in the petrochemical enterprise quotation firm, social inventory is not high factor support, the possibility of falling in the afternoon is not big.

不过，在石化企业报价坚挺，社会库存不高等因素的支撑下，后市下滑的可能性也不大。

It is expected that the recent PP market in East China may be a stable market, small adjustments to the market.

预计，近期华东地区PP市场可能是大盘平稳，小盘调整的行情。